Some puzzled faces at Metcheck HQ over the last couple of days as the numerical model output has been showing an unusual feature developing close to or over the UK and Ireland. Yes, we are talking about high pressure of course, a synoptic feature that has been in very short supply over recent months.
Of course it's not completely unexpected given that we are moving further into spring and the weather naturally improves, but it's still hard to believe! It's not necessarily going to be a straightforward pattern change to a fine and settled outlook, but prospects are certainly looking much drier than they have done for quite some time. The next few days do see some showery north-westerly winds bringing rather cool conditions but there is reasonable consensus on high pressure building in across the country by next weekend.
Initially that high will be centred to the west of Britain and Ireland so this will keep winds coming from a northerly quarter so temperatures will be on the cool side, especially by night, but with the increasing strength of the sun then by day in any sunny spells it will feel pleasant out of the wind. However, by next weekend the high may well move over the country which could bring some pretty reasonable weather.
The next question will then be what happens to this area of high pressure after it's moved in across the country and at the moment there are a range of solutions being shown. The most likely outcome at the current time is for pressure to remain relatively high to the north or west of the UK and Ireland which would favour a cooler outlook with winds from a northerly or easterly quarter bringing the best of the weather in the north and west and a risk of showers towards the south and east, but this comes with only moderate confidence at the current time.
METEOROLOGIST : BARBER
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