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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0437 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas forecast, specifically through 15/03 UTC, then again from 15/12 UTC to 16/00 UTC. Seas of 8-10 ft are possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast is issued by Meteo- France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 04N43W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 21W and 36W, and from 05N to 09N between 43W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front over the NW Gulf extends from SE Louisiana to 26N93W then becomes stationary to just S of the Rio Grande. Ahead of the front, a line of moderate to strong convection is moving ESE through portions of the central Gulf from 24N to 27N between 86.5W to 92W in association to a surface trough. Another surface trough is depicted over the Yucatan Peninsula and it is producing moderate to strong convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh return flow is east of front, with gentle to moderate NE winds west of the front. Seas are in the 4- 6 ft range east of the front, and in the 3-5 ft range west of the front.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends over the NW Gulf from central Louisiana to south of the Rio Grande. Ahead of the front, thunderstorms are moving through portions of the central Gulf. These thunderstorms could have locally stronger winds, rougher seas, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Thunderstorms could continue through Wed along the stationary front. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Winds may slightly weaken during the upcoming weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively tight pressure gradient is across the basin, with fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean W of 84.5W, and in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the NW Caribbean W of 84.5W, in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, and in the 2-5 ft range elsewhere. Deep convection is noted in the SW Caribbean S of 11N near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras and fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin through Sat night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

A weak cold front extends from 31N48.5W to 23.5N53W, then it is dissipating to near 22N57W. A surface trough follows the front from 22N57 to N of the Turks and Caicos. Moderate southerly winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range are N of 29N between the front and 45.5W. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered W of Bermuda near 33N66W and is building in behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas in the 5-8 ft range are noted off the NE Florida coast due to another approaching cold front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3-6 ft range are elsewhere west of the front. To the east of the front, high pressure dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters along with seas in the 4-7 ft seas, except fresh to strong winds N of 18N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted off the NE Florida coast due to an approaching cold front. As the front moves off the Florida coast Thu, these fresh to strong winds will spread E as the front continues moving eastward. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible along the front. By Fri night, the front will stall and weaken from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Conditions around the front should improve by Fri, with tranquil conditions then continuing through the upcoming weekend.



Updated : 15/05/2024 08:00:03

2024 Storm Names

Storm	Storm Name	Storm Status
1	Alberto	Allocated
2	Beryl	Allocated
3	Chris	Allocated
4	Debby	Allocated
5	Ernesto	Allocated
6	Francine	Allocated
7	Gordon	Allocated
8	Helene	Allocated
9	Isaac	Allocated
10	Joyce	Allocated
11	Kirk	Allocated
12	Leslie	Allocated
13	Milton	Allocated
14	Nadine	Allocated
15	Oscar	Allocated
16	Patty	Allocated
17	Rafael	Allocated
18	Sara	Allocated
19	Tony	Allocated
20	Valerie	Allocated
21	William	Allocated
22	Alpha	Allocated
23	Beta	Allocated
24	Gamma	Allocated
25	Delta	Allocated
26	Epsilon	Allocated
27	Zeta	Allocated